Goal 16

Domestic Markets for Agricultural Products - Deep Dive

The value of agricultural products produced for, and consumed within, the Nova Scotia domestic market will have increased by $230 million.

Updated:

Goal 16 summary graphic.

Local food products are comprised of harvested vegetables and fish caught from the ocean as well as locally processed foods, like bakery products and seafood products.  Estimating the domestic share of local food market sales requires considering both primary and processed food products.

Statistics Canada’s Supply and Use Tables are the basis for estimating local producers’ share of domestic food markets.  The total supply of each product can be divided between domestic production and imports.  This supply is then used in the economy for industry inputs, consumption by households, or exports.  The challenge with this data source is that it only shows how much of the total supply is processed or consumed locally, and not how much of that industry inputs and subsequent consumption of processed food can be attributed to domestic production.  

The value of locally produced and consumed unprocessed foods has remained relatively constant between 2013 and 2015, while the value of processed foods has declined.  The value of local restaurant meals increased by over $70 million in 2015. Note that value changes may not fully reflect changes in the volume of food consumed, as price levels and input substitution may also be factors.

yearFarm to tableWharf to tableProcessed to tableRestaurant meals
201365.835.2553.8951.4
201465.836.7491.9921
20156532.2456.5994.3

Annual food price inflation in Nova Scotia was relatively muted over 2013 and 2014, while it increased to over 4.0 per cent in 2015. Food prices increased faster than the overall price level that year, and were driven by increases in processed beef and pork.  Rising prices may cause consumers to shift consumption away from food products that become more expensive relative to others.

yearAll itemsFood purchased from storesFood purchased from restaurants
20122.03.40.9
20131.21.21.6
20141.71.41.3
20150.44.64.1
20161.22.22.9
20171.1-3.42.3
20182.2-0.32.1

yearFood purchased from storesFresh or frozen beefFresh or frozen porkFresh or frozen poultryProcessed meatFish seafoodDairy products
20123.46.10.34.09.74.01.7
20131.22.3-3.20.63.32.21.1
20141.414.811.0-2.24.17.2-0.4
20154.619.416.78.63.02.50.4
20162.20.61.30.03.92.81.2
2017-3.4-12.31.9-4.0-0.72.5-1.3
2018-0.3-0.9-3.2-6.31.50.1-0.2

yearFood purchased from storesFresh fruitPreserved fruit and fruit preparationsFresh vegetablesPreserved vegetables and vegetable preparations
20123.40.12.5-1.33.6
20131.21.5-0.64.02.7
20141.4-0.61.4-1.7-0.9
20154.67.52.04.10.2
20162.28.50.56.43.0
2017-3.4-6.60.5-8.9-0.4
2018-0.31.3-2.53.8-1.8

Farm to table

Agricultural and seafood commodities –  unprocessed harvested items such as fruits and vegetables, eggs, live animals or fishery products – are foods on their own and can be processed into other food items.  In 2015, households consumed $195 million of unprocessed foods, including $159 million of agricultural products and $36 million of fishery products. Food manufacturers used $825 million of unprocessed agricultural and seafood products. Alcoholic beverage manufacturers used $3.3 million worth of agricultural commodities that year.  Nova Scotia’s exports of agricultural and seafood commodities were dominated by seafood, making up nearly 90 per cent of the $1.35 billion exported in 2015.

In the same year, Nova Scotia also imported $437 million of unprocessed food products.  The Supply and Use tables do not report how much imported food is used for domestic consumption and how much is used for further food processing.  Therefore, it is currently unknown how much of the food being produced in the province is consumed by Nova Scotian households.

 

Supply and Use of Unprocessed Agricultural and Seafood Commodities in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000, 2015

Supply
Total Supply

2,467,358

Domestic production

2,029,971

Imports

437,387

Uses
Total Use

2,467,358

Household consumption

194,532

Food manufacturing

824,994

Alcohol manufacturing

3,255

Education, healthcare and government

2,245

Food services and drinking places

41,372

Other industrial use

52,127

Exports

1,354,265

Note that numbers may not total due to the exclusion of inventories

Supply and Use of Unprocessed Agricultural Commodities in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000, 2015

Supply
Total Supply

702,079

Domestic production

442,451

Imports

259,628

Uses
Total Use

702,079

Household consumption

158,702

Food manufacturing

326,916

Alcohol manufacturing

3,255

Education, healthcare and government

2,245

Food services and drinking places

36,727

Other industrial use

37,286

Exports

143,660

Note that numbers may not total due to the exclusion of inventories

Supply and Use of Unprocessed Seafood Commodities in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000, 2015

Supply
Total Supply

1,765,279

Domestic production

1,587,520

Imports

177,759

Uses
Total Use

1,765,279

Household consumption

35,830

Food manufacturing

498,078

Alcohol manufacturing -   
Education, healthcare and government -   
Food services and drinking places

4,645

Other industrial use

14,841

Exports

1,210,605

Note that numbers may not total due to the exclusion of inventories

Food Processors

Processed foods make up a larger portion of household food consumption than unprocessed agricultural or seafood products.  In 2015, Nova Scotian households consumed $1.03 billion of processed foods. In the same year, imports of processed foods totaled $1.34 billion and exports were $1.37 billion.  As with commodities, although total imports of processed foods are known, how imports are distributed between households and industry is unknown.

Supply and Use of Processed Foods in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000, 2015

Supply
Total Supply

2,929,668

Domestic production

1,592,128

Imports

1,337,540

Uses
Total Use

2,929,668

Household consumption

1,031,973

Food manufacturing

186,194

Alcohol manufacturing

3,137

Education, healthcare and government

24,410

Food services and drinking places

295,833

Other industrial use

41,991

Exports

1,373,686

Note that numbers may not total due to the exclusion of inventories. Household consumption does not include consumption of non-alcoholic beverages.

It is also unknown how much of local inputs into Nova Scotia food processing were subsequently consumed locally. For example, the Supply and Use accounts show how much flour is used by bakeries, but not how much of the bakery sector’s use was imported and how much was from local farmers. This could also vary on a product by product basis.

The food manufacturing sector uses significantly more unprocessed food items than are purchased by local households. The largest industry (by input size) is the seafood product preparation and packaging sector, where over half of the inputs to production are unprocessed products.  A small share of the sector’s unprocessed inputs was imported to the province (10.1 per cent), compared to other industries, like fruit and vegetable preservation, where about two-thirds of the sector’s unprocessed inputs (fresh fruits and nuts) are imported.

Inputs to food manufacturing industries in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000 (import share of inputs, %), 2015

  Total inputs Unprocessed inputs Processed inputs Other inputs Wages and Salaries Gross Operating Surplus
Animal food manufacturing

217,961 (61.6)

33,489 (48.5)

58,836 (69.0)

125,636

13,260

833

Grain and oilseed milling

48,831 (44.3)

0 (0.0)

881 (44.3)

47,950

3,021

2,252

Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing

155,738 (65.0)

90,235 (65.1)

3,250 (52.5)

1,528 (61.7)

21,335

12,930

Dairy product manufacturing

204,461 (18.3)

114,552 (8.6)

30,766 (54.5)

59,143

29,997

-889

Meat product manufacturing

126,911 (13.2)

85,912 (1.0)

15,005 (83.2)

25,994

17,934

6,574

Seafood product preparation and packaging

798,580 (11.3)

491,200 (10.1)

50,801 (23.5)

256,579

176,929

58,668

Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing

94,635 (49.5)

2,472 (64.7)

23,024 (47.9)

69,139

30,033

29,368

Other food manufacturing

27,828 (65.8)

7,134 (70.1)

2,150 (51.7)

18,544

8,996

72,030

Not shown: Sugar and confectionary manufacturing and soft drink and ice manufacturing

Restaurant meals and alchohol

In 2015, Nova Scotia’s households consumed $1.18 billion of prepared meals.  Domestic production of prepared meals totaled $1.50 billion in 2015, with $279 million of imports.  As with locally-processed foods, it is unclear how much local content (unprocessed or processed) makes up each prepared restaurant meal, on average.

In the same year, Nova Scotian households purchased $174 million in alcoholic beverages for immediate consumption (i.e. at restaurants or bars).   Domestic production increased to $197 million, and imports declined to $57 million. From this information, it is unknown how much of domestic or imported products were purchased by Nova Scotian households.  Note that alcoholic beverages are not included in the headline indicator.

Supply and Use of Prepared Meals and Beverages in Nova Scotia, Basic prices, $,000, 2015

Supply
  Prepared meals Alcohol for Immediate Consumption
Total Supply 1,747,814

253,938

Domestic production

1,469,092

196,628

Imports

278,722

57,310

Uses
  Prepared meals Alcohol for Immediate Consumption
Total Use

1,747,814

253,938

Household consumption

1,182,912

173,784

Food manufacturing

5,876

981

Alcohol manufacturing

1,758

311

Education, healthcare and government

100,971

5,120

Food services and drinking places

4,177

707

Other industrial use

103,965

27,013

Exports

348,155

46,022

Note that numbers may not total due to the exclusion of inventories

Restaurants and bars used $41 million of unprocessed agricultural and seafood products and $296 million of processed food products in 2015.  Inputs with a high import share include fresh fruits and vegetables and processed meat products (including beef and pork).

Inputs to Food Services and Drinking Places in Nova Scotia, Basic prices, $,000 (import share of inputs, %), 2015

Total Inputs

879,222 (62.9)

Unprocessed

41,372 (45.9)

Processed

295,833 (65.3)

Alcohol

25,805

Prepared Meals

4,177

Alcohol for immediate consumption

707

Other inputs

542,017

Wages and salaries

484,581

Gross Operating surplus

94,927

Domestic production of beer, wine and spirits was $174 million in 2015 while imports totaled $221 million.  Households consumed $165 million and another $158 million was exported. From this information, it is unknown how much local alcohol is purchased by local consumers.

Supply and Use of Alcoholic Beverages in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000, 2015

Supply
Total Supply

395,314

Domestic production

174,186

Imports

221,128

Uses
Total Use

395,314

Household consumption

165,053

Food manufacturing

1,176

Alcohol manufacturing

5,534

Education, healthcare and government

3,609

Food services and drinking places

25,805

Other industrial use

32,205

Exports 157,564

 

Alcoholic beverages include beer, wine and brandy, and distilled liquor. Note that numbers may not total due to the exclusion of inventories

Breweries and wineries and distilleries require inputs with a high import share in Nova Scotia, including fresh fruits and fruit juices for wineries and grain products for breweries.

Inputs to Alcohol Manufacturing in Nova Scotia Basic prices, $,000 (import share of inputs, %), 2015

  Breweries Wineries and distilleries
Total Inputs 100,612 (48.8)

24,146 (65.1)

Unprocessed

658 (68.9)

2,597 (65.4)

Processed 2,944 (44.3)

193 (61.3)

Other inputs 97,010

21,356

Wages and Salaries

12,852

7,076

Gross Operating Surplus 15,967

9,613

Using the best available information, it is still unknown how much local agricultural and seafood products are ultimately consumed by Nova Scotian households. To better understand the domestic linkages in Nova Scotia’s agricultural markets, a model is being built that will clarify how local producers and consumers rely on local markets. When this analysis is complete, there will be a better understanding of the domestic markets for local food: how much local agricultural product is consumed by Nova Scotian households, how much is used in local food processing, and served at local restaurants.

Notes:

  • Agricultural commodities include oilseeds (except canola), grains (except wheat), fresh potatoes, fresh fruits and nuts, other miscellaneous crop products, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), cattle and calves, unprocessed fluid milk, hogs, eggs in shell, poultry, and other live animals.  Seafood commodities include fish, crustaceans, shellfish and other fishery products. Animal or pet food is not included.

  • Processed food products include flour and other grain mill products, fresh, frozen and canned fruit and vegetable juice, preserved fruit and vegetables and frozen foods, processed fluid milk and milk products, cheese and cheese products, butter and dry and canned dairy products, ice cream, sherbet and similar frozen desserts, fresh and frozen beef and veal, fresh and frozen pork, fresh and frozen poultry of all types, processed meat products, other miscellaneous meats and animal by-products, prepared and packaged seafood products, bread, rolls and flatbreads, cookies, crackers and baked sweet goods, snack food products, and other food products, n.e.c..  Import heavy products including margarine and cooking oils, breakfast cereal and other cereal products, grain and oilseed products, sugar and sugar mill by-products, chocolate and confectionary products, flour mixes, dough and dry pasta, coffee and tea, and flavouring syrups, seasonings and dressings are not included.

  • Alcoholic beverages include beer, wine and brandy and distilled liquor.

  • Food manufacturing sectors include animal food, grain and oilseed milling, sugar and confectionary product manufacturing, fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing, dairy product manufacturing, meat product manufacturing, seafood product preparation and packaging, bakeries and tortilla manufacturing, soft drink and ice manufacturing and other food manufacturing.

Changes to the indicator, baseline, or target:

  • As there was no data available on local food consumption, a methodology was developed for estimating the value of local food consumed by households.

  • We were unable to replicate the baseline number of $230 million quoted in the OneNS Report by any measure of local food.

  • As the estimated value of local food consumed was not similar to the original baseline, a new target was adopted. A levels target was adopted instead of the original target of doubling the baseline. In keeping with the spirit of the original goal, an increase of $230 million was adopted as the target.